THE EPILOGUE:  THE INEPTITUDE OF CONFIDENCE

Last Saturday I was watching a video from Carl Sagan and he was saying the biggest mistake people make is confusing confidence for correctness.  That in fact, your education, training, and experience can all prevent you from learning and hearing the truth.  He pointed out that when he was twenty six he was ignoring an important lecture because it contradicted the truth he believed in.  That a person with less confidence would be more curious and open minded and not feel the need to defend their version of the truth.  He remarked that when the lecturer was talking about this that he felt he was being spoken to directly and well Carl, I felt the same way. I felt the ghost of Carl Sagan was asking me to wake up and listen.  I started thinking about all of the times I used my training to attack, dissect and destroy new information and theories.  I could pick them apart with great skill and I was really only listening to hear the weakness.  I wasn't giving any of it a fair shot.  I thought I will prove that it is flawed and help that person understand that they think the wrong thing.  This wasn't twenty five years ago this was last week and every day prior.

 

Yes part of me knows that when you are talking to Chris Morris you shut up and listen because wisdom is going to be coming out.  Part of me knows that when you try something new it is best to just experience it and then decide whether or not you like it much later.  Part of me loves hearing different perspectives on familiar topics because it is both fascinating and informative to see how other people feel about things i live with daily.  The push back typically comes when my existing idea is directly challenged.  Then I get very precious and defensive.  The Glencairn is the best whiskey glass because of the nosing and the delivery point.  When someone prefers a different glass I think they are just mistaken.  Now if you don't like Peated whisky then you don't like peated whisky.  But if you detect peat in a highland scotch, I'm suspicious because I don't.  I assume that you are misidentifying it.  But there is in fact a small amount of peat in Mortlach, I just don't taste it or smell it.  For many years when customers told me they wanted a dry wine I learned that what they meant was not as sweet.  I learned they did not mean a bone dry Italian red but it never occurred to me that this wine was bone dry to them.  That anything past that would just taste bitter.  If you told me that you loved to puree carrots and dump them into your gin I would encourage you to do so because you liked it.  I have maintained that the best way to drink anything is how you enjoy it, it is your bottle and your life.  But when someone grabs an expensive tequila and mixes it with dekuyper that feels so very wrong to me.  I forget my own rule of them enjoying it.

 

All of us have our own kind of crazy.  Not that we all belong in mental hospitals but we all have areas that we care more about than other folks.  We have family rituals that make sense to us and possibly no one else.  Our own monopoly rules.  Our own Christmas Day and Eve rituals.  It’s one of the most wonderful things about humans is that we may strive to conform but we are different in so many ways.  Today Sheila told me she ironed her pillow cases. I have not done this and I never will do this but it makes her happy and that's all that matters.  I won't eat a sandwich with bad bread.  People can call me any name they like but the bread is the most important part of the sandwich and I'm happy to die on that hill (hungry or full depending on the bread).  I think a great number of conflicts could be resolved simply by listening and understanding that your opinion, your experience is just that…yours.  You don't have to stop doing it your way, and you should stop trying to make others do it your way.  Your education and experience does not apply to them.  Every Tuesday night in Japan we went to this bar called B-Trip.  I would lead the way and the gang followed me. I had no idea that i was taking everyone the long way.  I just knew that the first time I went there we turned left at the school.  So I took them to the school and turned left.  And every single Tuesday we had a great time.  Until one day my girlfriend told me we should go another way and we did.  Turns out the bar was a straight line from the train station.  Guess what?  On all of those other Tuesdays we weren't waiting time or ruining our lives, we were talking and laughing, and we got to see Tai Chi man, a gentleman that could do Tai Chi in the busiest intersection I've ever seen.  I needed to see him and know that level of concentration was possible, and I missed him once we started taking the short cut.

 

What did we do with that “extra” time? I’ve no idea, but I do remember the longer walks. The knowledge of the faster way did not improve our lives. But can you imagine the absurdity of me insisting we take the long way again? Even just typing it feels crazy. “Hey guys, I know that we cut our travel time in half but don’t you think we had more fun going the long way?” Also maybe they didn’t. I learned very quickly that folks are not on the fence about peated whisky or mezcal. So no matter how excited I am about a new peated whisky there are folks that would hate it. My knowledge of the whisky doesn’t change their experience with it. I even hear customers say “I know I’m supposed to like it, but i really don’t. I used to hate it but now it is just not my favorite.” That makes me sad, for two reasons. The first reason is that they don’t get to enjoy a unique taste. The second is that they are convinced they should keep trying a thing they dislike because it is some kind of character flaw or litmus test.

 

I was sitting next to a woman at a bar years ago and she was trying to figure out what to order. I listened to what she was asking and realized that what she wanted was what I was drinking. The bartender could not solve what she was saying and picked out something with a low chance of success. I said nothing but when she sipped it, she was displeased. I offered her a sip of mine and she looked at me like I had asked her to put a down payment on the first trip to Mars. I offered her a straw but that didn’t help the situation. I described the drink in detail explaining how it checked off the boxes she had mentioned and to this day I’m convinced she would have loved it. But instead she ordered something super safe after her first risk hadn’t worked out. Three people trying to solve one problem and none of us could make it happen. I spent a big chunk of my life wondering why on earth the entire planet didn’t listen to me because I wouldn’t bother talking unless I had already figured it out!

 

I tried all of these things for you! I can be frequently heard to say this phrase on the floor. It is true, I’ve devoted a lot of time, money, and liver functions in an attempt to try it all and build an inventory that can satisfy anyone that walks through the door. What I forget is that it is fun to discover things. While I’m ranting about not letting the internet decide what you like and don’t like I’m just doing that in person. Now if you have an expression that looks like a lost child in a supermarket it becomes hard to ignore that. You’re clearly not having a good time and there’s no reason for that. I’m not a mind reader but I CAN see your face. It is all unnecessary but literally your business. There have been people that have thrown their hands up and started to storm out and you stop them and they say “well, you don’t have vermouth!” “We do, please follow me.” Unfortunately it is really only sports that has time outs.

 

When I hear the voice in my head starting to argue with the person while they are talking I would love to call a timeout and just let them finish. Instead of waiting for them to just stop talking so I can reply with my critique I could just shut up and hear them out. Now I don’t mean when someone is giving you some kind of regurgitated nonsense propaganda, I’m talking about their actual thoughts on the matter. Our world views need to be challenged because we are not dead yet. Do you even remember when you arrived at that opinion? Now you have this opinion and you’re now confidently sharing with people, defending, and attacking an alternate view of it and for what reason? In college the people in my study group would memorize my answers to the questions but sometimes I was wrong but I explained it confidently so they believed me. And I never double checked it because I felt very confident.

 

Confidence and education have a lot of wonderful properties that have helped me a great deal. I can take any recipe and try to make it and it will turn out edible or even great. My experience in this industry can guide me to predict the success or failure of many bottles and trends. But every year I’m dead wrong more than once. I really thought the 12 year old cask strength Macallan would be a hit. I didn’t think that the Penelope Black Walnut Old Fashioned would be the big hit that it turned out to be. 15 years ago I confidently predicted that Fireball had seen its peak! The quiet and reserved person that is taking everything in will always initially lose to the loud braggart and by the time everyone realizes that the quiet one had the answers it is too late so then they double down. We are so afraid of being wrong, apologizing, changing our minds. How on earth is changing your mind a flaw or a weakness? You try it you change, you get new information you change, you have a personal experience and you change. Informed change is how we grow and evolve!

 

If you go through all of recorded history every smart person ended up being wrong. They mostly did the best they could, but they just didn’t have all the information. None of us do. None of us. By none, I mean zero. Like the first time you realized your parents were full of it. My dad told me that you should not run in the rain because you will run into more drops and you will miss more by walking. We were walking to the gym for PE in elementary school and it was pouring rain and I was walking and my gym teacher said “run Haze” and I proudly told her my father’s theory, and she said, “well your father is an idiot”. So, I learned the old man was wrong at a very young age but only discovered I am quite recently! Here is the Atom it is the building block of everything. Oh wait! Here are quarks! Misinformation abounds and I don’t just mean those flat earth losers, I’m talking about the folks that think they get drunker off tequila or people who believe that they can multitask. We have access to more information than ever before, but it contains the largest number of incorrect theories than ever existed as well and who can tell the difference? Common sense or intuition is frequently wrong but powerful because it resonates so deeply. You can second guess yourself into a miserable life and you can confidently walk over the edge of a cliff. I think the secret must be to try and stay fluid. If you find yourself being a rock figure out why and adjust accordingly.

 

 

 

Cheers,

Keith